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global debt crisis

debt climbed to a record high of about 230% of gross domestic product (GDP

Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. About a third of emerging market and developing economies are projected to decelerate this year due to weaker-than-expected exports and investment.”The World Bank’s concerns that countries could be borrowing excessively stem from the recent history of financial distress, with each crash preceded by an accumulation of debt. The rollover of existing debt can become increasingly difficult during periods of financial stress, potentially leading to a crisis,” it said. Unfortunately, the world is sitting on a sovereign debt timebomb that could be triggered at any time by the smallest event. In a fragile global environment, policy improvements are critical to minimize the risks associated with the current debt wave.

"Low global interest rates provide only a precarious protection against financial crises," Ayhan Kose, director of the World Bank's Prospects Group, said in the report.

The World Bank has highlighted the risk of a fresh global debt crisis after warning of the biggest buildup in borrowing in the past 50 years. "Got a confidential news tip? "Steps to improve the business climate, the rule of law, debt management, and productivity can help achieve sustained growth. China accounted for the bulk of the increase – in part due to its size – but the build-up was broad-based, and included other big emerging economies such as Brazil.The World Bank said financial turmoil in emerging and developing economies was one of the threats to its forecast of a slight strengthening of global growth this year, from 2.4% to 2.5%.The modest pick-up in activity would depend, the GEP said, on a better year for some of the large emerging economies – such as Argentina, Mexico and Turkey – that struggled in 2019.

The current wave — which started in 2010 — is thought to be "the largest, fastest and most broad-based increase" in global borrowing since the 1970s.The World Bank said that while low levels of interest rates — which financial markets expect to be sustained over the medium term — "mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt levels," the previous three waves of broad-based debt accumulation all ended with financial crises in many developing and emerging economies. But the World Bank stressed there were downside risks to its forecast.“This rebound is not broad-based; instead it assumes improved performance of a small number of large economies, some of which are emerging from a period of substantial weakness. The first three waves of global debt accumulation were identified as running from 1970-1989, 1990-2001 and 2002-2009.It listed a menu of four policy options for countries to reduce the likelihood of the current global debt wave ending in crises — and, if crises were to take place, to alleviate their impact.First, the World Bank said sound debt management and debt transparency should help to reduce borrowing costs and contain fiscal risks.Second, strong monetary, exchange rate and fiscal policy frameworks could safeguard developing and emerging economies in a fragile economic environment.Third, robust financial sector regulation and supervision to recognize and tackle emerging risks.And, fourth, effective public finance management and policies that promote good corporate governance can help ensure that debt is used productively.The World Bank strengthened its global economic growth forecast to 2.5% in 2020 in the report, up from its previous projection of 2.4%, but warned downward risks were likely to persist. Total (public and private) EMDE debt also reached a record-high of almost 170 percent of GDP ($55 trillion) in 2018, an increase of 54 percentage points of GDP since 2010.
© 2020 Guardian News & Media Limited or its affiliated companies.

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